A few words on this IRS "scandal" that is sweeping over the political landscape.
What do we hire the IRS for? Are they not hired by the American people to collect taxes and prevent or bring to justice tax fraud?
In their role of preventing fraud. If I was running an organization with the goal of preventing tax fraud, and I was getting applications from organizations that proudly proclaimed an ideological opposition to paying taxes and who were applying for tax exempt status, I would give those applications special scrutiny. Isn't that the job of the IRS?
If I was applying for a U.S. visa and I gave my employers name as "Islamic Jihad" wouldn't I expect extra scrutiny of my application for a visa? And as an American who expects Immigration and Customs to keep terrorists out of the country, don't I expect extra scrutiny for groups who proclaim an antagonism to this country?
And despite their flag wrapped stance, the Tea Party politicos are anti-American as they seek the impoverishment of the American government. They are a tool of the Chicago economists and a tool of the corporate establishment and of the ongoing "Reagan revolution" that seeks to keep the workers working for less in order that corporate profits can continue to grow. They are misguided. It is a lack of demand due to worker impoverishment that keeps consumer demand low. And it is not government debt by the government that holds the worlds reserve currency that is the problem. The problem is consumer debt made neccessary by the lack of wage gains and by the lack of wage participation in the "efficiency" of the economy. The corporates are very efficient at capturing the money that has been printed over the years. Tea party politics are at odds with increased wages for the common man in America. It is a constant source of amazement to myself at the populist appeal of the Tea party!
I have been getting that bearish feeling lately. The indexes and some stocks seem to be getting ahead of themselves. This is a general statement and is not original. But the amount of what seems like "speculation" is and has been growing. I see those small stocks like AMD and EGLE having big, and predictable moves on no news or short covering, and while short covering is usually the start to a bottom and is often the blowoff to tops (TSLA?) while these things are happening the market is frothy and irrational.
I may be writing this to rationalize my recent mistakes. Although my calls on some stocks have been right on, I have not made the profits that those calls would imply. (sp?).... due to early selling and an aversion to giving back profits. So I trade a 1x profit for that 3x or 6x profit... Disheartening is a mild word....
But, putting aside or trying to put aside these emotions, I feel like a correction is overdue. The economic news is not confirming the stock market optimism. Here
Dollar strength over the last couple of days seems a little hollow. At least that is the feeling I get from looking at the UUP etf. I am biased and have been expecting the dollar to decline.
I know of no fundamental reason for strength in the USD. The economy IS improving, but interest rates are still low and the FED most likely will keep short term interest rates low for the forseeable future. When interest rates are too low and an economy is strong the currency is weak. At least that is my take on currencies and interest rates....
Despite the weakness in gold and silver today the gold and silver stocks saw strong buying. And there was continued buying in the energy space including the coal stocks. And continued recent buying in the steel and iron stocks. There are rumblings about a rotation from the "safe" stocks like the Proctor & Gambles and into the cyclicals. It seems to be happening. There was good money made in this situation in the early 2000's. Again in early 2009. And now.
I think MCP will breakout to the upside.
An earnings report is due in a few days. If the earnings report is poor there may be a kneejerk down. But I get the feeling that a poor report may be ignored in favor of a future that looks brighter.
Lots of heavy volume today in MCP as well as many of the gold miners. It looks like accumulation in the miners. Even the iron miners....CLF ;)
The Big Lie (German
: Große Lüge) is a propaganda technique. The expression was coined by Adolf Hitler, when he dictated his 1925 book Mein Kampf, about the use of a lie so "colossal" that no one would believe that someone "could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously." Hitler asserted the technique was used by Jews to unfairly blame Germany's loss in World War I on German Army officer Erich Ludendorff.
From Wikipedia here......
What is the deal with jackbooted clowns like Glenn Beck doing and say crap like this:
Cliff Natural is getting that look. The price has run up against a ceiling several times recently. Not to say that it won't go down. It very well may.
BUT. IF it goes throught the ceiling it may go through the ceiling. If you know what I mean......
And we can take a look at copper again. Lot of volume in this thinly traded fund here at the "bottom?".
And that old chart of copper. It didn't fall as fast as I thought it might. When something doesn't act like it ought to my ears perk up!
This is all still bottom picking tho. Extreme caution is warranted!!
Here is a long term chart of a classic triangle or coil pattern in EEM, the emerging markets ETF.
Emerging markets are just getting started. This is a function of demographics. The emerging markets are where the young people are. The emerging markets are where the cheaper laborers are. Unless the free market stance among the worlds developed economies changes, these people are going to have jobs, and the money from China will continue to flow into these economies.
IF these markets and economies continue to improve it will mean that the rest of the world is successfully creating more money/debt and will be spending it on things. China will work through it's problems and will create an increased standard of living for more of it's citizens. They will most likely do this by continued appreciation of their currency, giving their workers a raise in pay while slowing inflation. They will in this manner export the inflation they are feeling now. And as they increasingly turn to other currencies besides the US dollar the dollar will weaken and we will feel that inflation.
China and the asian countries have been exporting deflation for years. They cycle is changing.....
At first inflation feels goooood!
A long term chart:
It works to put on a position in the long term the same way as it works in a short term trade.
Buy on the way up as a move looks to be getting started, adding as it proves you right.
You know you are wrong if EEM moves below the neckline on that H&S. I would be fully invested as the price goes to new all time highs.....