Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Time Out!

I'm making this too complicated. And it is costing me money.

I am sitting on the sidelines for awhile to watch.

We'll see how long this lasts.


Friday, August 15, 2014

Poop Hitting Fan

The latest new from Ukraine is of part of a Russian military column being destroyed by Ukraine forces. There is talk of NATO involvement. Unknown what "involvement" means.

Stocks down sharply as WWIII gets under way......

Oh, that won't happen! 


WWIII here!

US Treasuries much stronger lately than any reasonable person could expect with the anticipation of an end to Fed purchases and a rate hike next year.
It hasn't mattered what stocks have done lately, treasuries go up.

This matters.

Control risk,

P.S., The talking voice on TV/CNBC says this is a "buying opportunity". Right, the S&P is down 5 points. I suppose he is buying. Finally.


And I've given up on CRK and UNG. For now.


Sunday, August 10, 2014

Comstock Resources and UNG

I started some trades in CRK and UNG last week on technical indications.

CRK seemed to be strong at last weeks level by the buying volume that came in. See Chart.
And a rounded bottom in UNG that I noticed a few days ago. Not a strong chart, but one that just struck me when I looked at the dailies a couple days ago. The best trades for me are often those that just jump out at me. I can't always rationalize the reasons.

But started a couple trades. I'll add to them if they seem to be turning into trends.....

Control your risk,

Friday, August 8, 2014

My Yearly Horse Ride

O'kay. This is nothing to do with trading. The week before last I went with my wife on a yearly adventure on the Pacific Crest Trail. We ride out of a small horsecamp  at Windigo Pass in the headwaters of the North Umpqua drainage. Spent some long days in the saddle, and there was even a few minutes when I thought "this is fun".....

But the scenery is unbelievable.

Gotta do that again.

Still long silver and gold and that molycorp thing.


Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Stocks Drop

Midday, stocks drop and gold and silver see some buying as the prospect of a Russian intervention in Ukraine rises.
Russia troop increase at Ukraine border raises concerns

The only stocks I own are related to gold or silver or molybdenum.(hint) (smirk)
And they have all been losers so far, but.....


Todays ISM

Here is the Institute for Supply Management report for the month:

July 2014 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Numbers were stronger than expected according to the talking Santelli.

Now the question must be: "Will the Fed keep up with the economy?"

And I got my volume in SLV today. :(
And we filled that gap.....


Monday, August 4, 2014


Here are a couple  of charts that illustrate the economic weakness in the U.S. economy.

The talk is beginning to shift to inflation, as a real phenomenon. And what the Fed will do about it.

The Fed will not be in a hurry to slow things down. Particularly if there is political world events that may impact trade.

Position accordingly.

On a related note SLV hit an intraday and multi-week low on low volume today. The selling wasn't there.......


Friday, August 1, 2014

DECK Divergence

Curiously, my indicator of the future of the stock averages has diverged from the DOW.

Deckers remains strong despite the weakness in the major averages.

I hate to call a bottom......


Thursday, July 31, 2014

MolyCorp (again)

I've been doing some bottom picking in MCP lately. Despite the bad news. This stock is down a long way from the heady days a few years ago when China was restricting exports of rare earth metals.
There is even news of China raising quotas now. MCP up today through recent resistance.

And how would a serious trade war with Russia and China affect imports of rare metals?

MCP looks like it could go back to $3 for a start here.

control risk,

Later at the end of the day:

MCP is looking technically challenging. To say the least.........



The stock indexes down sharply at the open today. The strong economic news yesterday and the increases in wages paid numbers this morning caused interest rates to rise, bonds to fall. But the weakness in stocks is only partly due to the prospect of rising interest rates and seems mostly to be a result of the increasing tension with Russia. A trade war with Russia, with the specter of a shooting war, as well as the increasing tension with China over trade and quality issues is putting a crimp in the international profits of international companies.

Stepping back. Does a trade war cause inflation the same as conventional shooting war does?

Over the longer term, as far as the Fed and interest rates go, I would be surprise if the Fed continued or proceeded with "tightening" if international tensions rise, and a trade war ensues. There is an election coming up in two years and that is traditionally a cause of easy monetary policy, but aside from that the Fed will take the future into account. And a looming trade war will cause them to put their obligation to tighten behind the mandate to maintain full employment.

This will cause the inflation that a war typically causes. Down the road. And in spades.
If this happens.

Just thinkin',